Urgent Priorities 2025

This time of year I usually write about the urgent priorities for the upcoming year and note with regret that there had been little progress on the urgent priorities that I wrote about in the previous year. Although the Biden administration can be excused for spending oodles of money for Covid relief (since the earlier Trump administration also spent oodles of money for Covid relief), President Biden has continued to spend like a drunken sailor even after the panic of Covid has abated. Much of the wasteful spending has been dedicated to renewable energy and electric vehicles even though these actions will have a minimal impact on climate change as China and other developing countries produce an ever increasing amount of carbon emissions. Many more billions have been poured into Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) programs within the government and mandated throughout the country even though these positive sounding themes have introduced reverse discrimination and divided the country into warring identities.

The American public rejected the Democrats attempt to drive our country far to the left and elected a second Trump administration. However the question remains as to whether voters were rejecting Democrats or favoring the Republicans’ campaign promises. Many of those promised programs are very controversial and may have unintended consequences equally as devastating as the Democrats’ programs have proven to be. According to Real Clear Politics a majority of Americans have believed the country to be on the wrong track since at least since 2009 through both Republican and Democratic administrations. The American people are ready for change – meaningful change. The change they want includes many of the MAGA campaign promises, but I believe they want even more substantive changes than those Mr. Trump has promised.

To get America back on the right track, the incoming Trump administration (and probably many future administrations as well because we are talking about generational issues here) need to focus on some big, interrelated priorities and not be distracted by petty grievances and past misdeeds. To be successful the Trump administration has to make the lives of Americans and future generations better and more rewarding, not appease Mr. Trump’s desire for revenge against radical left Democrats and disloyal Republicans.

In October of this year, the Economist magazine declared the US economy “the envy of the world,” saying that “The American economy has left other rich countries in the dust” despite the fact that most Americans thought Bidenomics was terrible. Although most people probably think the worst aspect of Bidenomics was the inflation that peaked at around 9% in 2022 (but which has since fallen to around 2.75% now), the real problem was Biden’s industrial policy that tried to take the American economy to a place American consumers did not want to go. Electric vehicles languish on dealer lots despite massive government subsidies because EVs are not well adapted to how Americans drive cars. Renewable energy has proven to be not only unreliable but also very expensive (especially in California). It is true that GDP growth of around 3% is far better than what Europe can produce and it is also true that the vaunted Chinese economic dynamo is faltering on weak domestic consumption, but we must remember that this American growth has been bought with unsustainable deficit spending.

The federal deficit for the last fiscal year was $1.8 trillion or 6.4% of GDP, little of which went to addressing the urgent priorities we face. The vast majority of federal spending went to so-called mandatory programs such as Social Security and Medicare. The US Census Bureau notes that the proportion of people in the US over 65 grew from 4.9 million (or 4.7% of the total U.S. population) in 1920 prior to the creation of Social Security to 55.8 million (16.8%) in 2020. And because the government spends all the money contributed by workers for their retirement instead of saving or investing it, the Social Security Trust Fund will be broke by 2035. Instead of reforming Social Security and other entitlement programs, both Republicans and Democrats keep adding to the mounting expenditures as exemplified in the recently passed Social Security Fairness Act (in the Senate on a bipartisan vote of 76-20 and in the House  327-75-1) that the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated will cost, along with other last minute bills, around $380 billion.

America’s efforts to utilize diplomacy without the military strength to back it up has left the world a very dangerous place. Major wars have broken out in Europe and the Middle East and economic problems in China may prompt more aggression against Taiwan to distract a restive population. The world is not in a good place and the United States needs to be prepared for what all this turmoil produces. But the American military has become debilitated with antiquated equipment, a shrinking navy and depleted armory as US industry lacks the ability to resupply the arms being sent to defend Ukraine. Recruitment has fallen as the Pentagon focuses on social justice instead of military preparedness.

The incoming Trump administration faces numerous challenges and urgent priorities, many of which are interrelated. American foreign policy and diplomacy must be backed by military preparedness and a strong energy policy. Economic growth based on deficit spending and expanding public debt will inevitably collapse but any viable solution must include entitlement reform. Strengthening our republic and protecting our liberty not only requires reining in the administrative state, but also reforming Congress to reestablish it as the third co-equal branch of government, as well as creating a viable immigration policy.

National Defense

It is hard to tell if diplomacy is soft military force or if military force is hard diplomacy. But it is clear that the elements of US foreign policy must work together to advance American interests. Diplomacy that cannot be backed up by action is just empty words and fancy parties on the diplomatic circuit. Military strength can be dissipated on needless conflict if diplomacy cannot find alternative solutions. But America also needs an energy policy that frees our country from dependence on foreign suppliers. For decades, US foreign policy in the Middle East was hostage to OPEC. When the US became a net exporter of energy, that equation changed. The US set the global price for oil, not OPEC. When the Biden administration eased sanctions on Iran and clamped down on US oil and gas production, President Biden had to beg OPEC to increase production so that the price of gasoline in the US wouldn’t skyrocket, forcing him to release oil from our strategic reserves for political purposes when OPEC wouldn’t comply.

While the nature of warfare is changing, sometimes in ways we cannot foresee, the US military still needs a strong economy and industrial prowess to stay competitive with adversaries around the world. Environmental groups using EPA regulations have hampered America’s ability to source critical materials for advanced weapons domestically, forcing us to rely on China for rare earth minerals, lithium and cobalt for batteries. China controls the supply of cobalt through its companies in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Indonesia and while China holds less than 7% of the world’s lithium resources, it controls 80% of lithium production. The United States needs environmental policies that strengthen its strategic position against potential adversaries. Fox Business News recently reported the discovery by the US Geological Survey of lithium reserves of up to 19 million tons in Arkansas. The new Trump administration would be wise to push for the development of this critical resource and others across our country.

Rebuilding America’s military power will not be possible without a strong economy and the natural resources to power it.

Real Economic Strength

Economic growth founded upon deficit spending and mounting public debt is a chimera, a self-deception. At best it is trading short-term growth for long-term decline. At its worst it is sacrificing our economic reserves for political gain. Our historical leaders from the Founders on knew that public debt was a tax on future generations that must be repaid as quickly as possible by the current generation. Public indebtedness was reserved for emergencies such as war and was paid down as quickly as possible.

Public Debt as a Percent of GDP

Today we understand that a certain amount of public debt is not a bad thing. The US Treasury market is the base for the US capital markets that have made the United States a financial powerhouse. And the ability of foreigners to hold dollars and invest in US Treasuries is a critical element in making the US dollar the world’s reserve currency. But our ability to fund ourselves with public debt is not unlimited and it comes at a cost. The use of public debt to fund current entitlements is an abomination. Tax payers should know that benefits provided by politicians must be paid out of current taxes and not become a burden for our kids and grandkids.

But getting runaway debt under control is only the first step is rebuilding a strong economy. Much of the economic growth we experienced in the first Trump administration came, not from showy tax cuts, but from behind the scenes elimination of punitive and stultifying regulations that had held back US economic growth for decades. The public and private sectors should not be adversaries but partners in fostering economic opportunity. But executive orders and bureaucratic changes lack permanence and many of the beneficial changes made by Trump administration were undone when the progressive Biden administration took over. These changes must be made by law and any new regulation must include a sunset clause.

By the end of the twentieth century globalization had created a highly efficient global network of supply chains, but international free trade requires a peaceful world where the players all follow the same rules. The twenty-first century has been highlighted by the rise of powerful autocracies that don’t want to play by Western rules. President-elect Trump has fractured trade relations with friend and foe alike but America would be ill-served to try and go it alone. We need to rebuild global institutions that will foster relations among democratic countries and save tariffs and trade wars for our adversaries.

Good Governance

President-elect Trump has already announced the creation of a Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to cut the cost (and power) of the administrative state within the government. Headed by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, this effort will attempt to streamline the executive branch along the lines recommended by the Heritage Foundation in its Project 2025. But the administrative state has only taken advantage of the power vacuum created by the inability of Congress to function as the Founders intended. Only the Supreme court has prevented the administrative state from completely unbalancing the three branches of government created by the US Constitution.

Congress itself can make many of the necessary reforms because Congress made the rules that make it so difficult for Congress to act. Congress is the heart of American sovereignty because only Congress can make law. Executive orders and administrative actions are a usurpation of the constitutional rights of Congress but have progressed due to the inaction of Congress. One measure to restore balance would be a balanced budget amendment to the US Constitution (and, while we’re at it, a line item veto). And, of course, it is impossible to balance the budget without entitlement reform, and that includes Social Security and Medicare.

Domestic Tranquility

The very progressive Atlantic Magazine is trying to walk back its original support of the “broken windows” theory stating that it did not produce the reductions in crime as originally thought. But it is also clear that progressive ideas of justice have not worked since crime in progressive run cities such as San Francisco is skyrocketing. Besides, if the citizens feel unsafe then something needs to be done.

Most law enforcement is done at the local level and not by the federal government, But the administrative state has infected the system of justice in the United States converting the Justice Department and the FBI into partisan hacks of the Democratic Party. But the solution is not to convert the Justice Department bureaucrats into Republican party hacks but to restore the Justice Department and the FBI to their proper role.

Illegal immigration has disrupted the tranquility of cities across America, especially since Texas Governor Abbott started sending immigrants pouring into Texas to sanctuary cities around the country that had the luxury of ignoring the problem for years. President-elect Trump has vowed to finish the wall, stop illegal immigration and commence mass deportations of the millions that have crossed into the US in recent years. It is clear that we need to get control of our borders. But I am having second thoughts about the mass deportation of the people who have sacrificed so much to get here. Of course we need to deport or incarcerate criminals and terrorists, but most of the illegal border crossers just want to have a better life. To get here they have shown great courage and determination, characteristics that many of our native born citizens lack. Black immigrants from Jamaica and Africa outperform native-born African Americans. Four of the CEOs of the so-called MAG-7 high tech companies are immigrants. And as the birth rate of Americans has fallen to below the number needed to maintain a stable population, we need immigrants in our workforce. The first Trump administration proposed the RAISE Act to reform our antiquated and non-functional immigration laws. Although I think the numbers in the original act were overly restrictive, I think a new RAISE Act 2025, combined with a secure border, would go a long way to resolving our immigration problems. But there is a more important consideration to consider. Immigration helps us to be on the cutting edge of technology and that gives us a strategic advantage over adversaries that do not have access to this diverse ability to innovate.

Achieving these goals (or at least making a good start toward achieving these goals since it will be many years before we reap the ultimate benefits) will not erase the stain of January 6th from Donald Trump’s legacy, but it would bury that infamous deed under a mountain of worthy achievements. And while addressing each of these priorities would be a great benefit to our nation, these reforms complement each other so that the benefits are compounded when the reforms are combined. These recommendations will not be easy to implement and they will require sacrifice. Your favorite entitlement may be reduced or maybe even eliminated entirely. Your taxes may have to go up to help balance the budget. But you would be able to go to sleep at night knowing you are leaving a better country to your kids and grandkids.