Fentanomics

Ten days after his inauguration, President Trump announced punitive tariffs of 25% on Mexico and Canada as well as10% tariffs on China. The president took these “bold” actions  “ to hold Mexico, Canada, and China accountable … to their promises of stopping poisonous fentanyl and other drugs from flowing into our country.” The first question to pop into one’s mind is why so much harsher punishment for friends and neighbors than for the ultimate source of the fentanyl pouring across our borders. But since the first announcement the tariffs have been postponed, reannounced, delayed, new items included, other items deleted to the point nobody understands exactly what is going on.

It appears that President Trump believes that greedy, avaricious pharmaceutical manufacturers in China and violent criminal cartels in Mexico are forcing fentanyl drugs into the veins of innocent and oblivious Americans, killing hundreds of thousands of people. I don’t know how to describe the perpetrators from Canada responsible for smuggling the equivalent of one suitcase of drugs into the US. It appears that Mr. Trump’s understanding of the economics behinds this drug trade stopped before his Wharton professor of Economics 101 got to supply and demand.

The reason behind that Niagara-like flow of cocaine, methamphetamine, heroin, and even still marijuana along with opioids and fentanyl is the insatiable appetite of Americans for these products. The War on Drugs began in 1971 when President Nixon declared drugs “enemy number one” and vowed an all-out offensive to stop drug abuse. America has been losing this war ever since.

If Mr. Trump had paid attention to his Wharton economics professor he would understand that when supply is reduced but demand remains steady, the result is not lower consumption but rising prices. And as Adam Smith wrote in his seminal book The Wealth of Nations rising prices tell producers to increase production in order to reap even more profits (I keep bringing up Mr. Smith’s book over and over again in the apparently vain hope that someone in the Trump administration will understand this basic concept).

I have not seen any evidence that Mr. Trump or anyone else has done anything to reduce the demand for drugs in the US. Granted, previous campaigns to reduce drug demand were less than successful. D.A.R.E. (Drug Abuse Resistance Education) has been around almost as long the Rural Electrification Administration (1983 vs. 1936) but has been singularly ineffective (at least most people in the countryside have electricity now).

One would think that fentanyl would be its own worst enemy – it is a killer. It is deadly. Almost 74 thousand people died from fentanyl overdoses in 2022. The DEA warns that a single gram of fentanyl (about the size of a sugar packet in a fast food restaurant) can kill 500 people. Cops and EMS first responders can die from trying to treat people with fentanyl overdoses. And pills that contain fentanyl don’t come with warning labels. In fact most people that die from fentanyl had no idea they were ingesting fentanyl. Drug dealers try to hide the fact that their products are deadly. When I was in college taking an unknown drug might result in a bad trip, with fentanyl taking an unknown drug might be your last trip.

One must be abysmally stupid or horrifically oblivious to take an unknown drug that could kill you. The DEA reports that half of the [pills it tested contained deadly amounts of fentanyl. Unfortunately, abysmally stupid and horrifically oblivious seems to describe a huge swath of our population especially the young. Add in the fact, as described by Jonathan Haidt in his book, The Anxious Generation, that many of our young people are clinically depressed or suicidal and you have a generation that does not give a damn if their next hit will kill them or not.

I am not trying to make light of this problem. Fentanyl and other drugs are a serious and deadly problem. But if President Trump thinks that punitive tariffs on Mexico and Canada are going to do anything to alleviate the fentanyl crisis he is as abysmally stupid and horrifically oblivious as the worst meth-head, heroin addict or highschooler looking for some Adderall. Perhaps willfully so. In the MAGA-world the appearance of doing something counts more than doing something that will actually solve a problem.

I don’t mean to sound flippant. These are serious problems. Drug addiction, depression and suicide, homelessness, alcoholism, gambling addiction are all indicative of a disempowered citizenry. Americans don’t need a nanny state to take care of their powerlessness. Americans don’t need a Great Leader to fix everything for them. They need agency so that they have the power to address the issues that affect their daily lives. No one president can solve these problems. This requires generational change.

And, of course, the 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada actually have nothing to do with fentanyl. But that is a completely different discussion.